Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe54a…df26 crypto 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%88W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$6
other 27% −$2
sports 10% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -21.2% -28.7% 53% 40% -40.5%
≤30d 15 -21.2% -28.7% 53% 40% -40.5%
≤90d 201 +2.2% -7.5% 44% 42% -9.8%
all 201 +2.2% -7.5% 44% 42% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 42% -9.8%
10% -16.3% 39% -18.4%
15% -24.4% 36% -26.3%
20% -31.8% 33% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses88 / 113
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)201 / 203
History coverage85d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Víctor Muñoz: 1+ goals No 93¢ 97¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+4%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals No 79¢ 81¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $9 $0 -6%
Simon Adingra: 1+ goals Jun 20 $8 +$2 +20%
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $8 +$2 +24%
Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals Jun 20 $8 +$2 +18%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals Jun 20 $30 +$6 +20%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $8 −$1 -8%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $2 −$1 -81%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $27 +$42 +157%
CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 05 $15 +$4 +25%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $15 +$5 +36%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $50 +$16 +32%
Coritiba FBC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $7 $0 -5%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-04? Apr 03 $5 $0 -6%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 03 $4 $0 -6%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 03 $3 $0 -9%
São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $7 $0 -4%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $8 −$1 -9%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $16 −$15 -99%
Vitória SC vs. CD Tondela: O/U 3.5 Apr 03 $16 −$16 -99%
CA Tigre vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $6 +$4 +57%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $7 +$3 +41%
SE Palmeiras vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $6 +$4 +67%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $7 +$3 +42%
São Bernardo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: O/U 3.5 Apr 03 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 02 $4 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 02 $28 +$24 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 02 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 02 $14 +$26 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY No 79¢ $8 39m
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL No 43¢ $8 1h
Víctor Muñoz: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Víctor Muñoz: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY No 44¢ $9 2h
Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $8 19h
Simon Adingra: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $8 19h
Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $8 19h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $7 19h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $8 19h
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $5 19h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 90¢ $9 19h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY No 49¢ $2 20h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY No 49¢ $3 20h
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $5 22h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $8 22h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $8 22h
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $8 22h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $9 22h
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $8 22h
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $8 22h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $7 23h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $1 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.44 · official $61.45 (match) · 550 history records