Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe54b…aa14 world 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,270 (+8%) realized +$11,270 · open +$1,000
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%154W / 49L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$670per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$19,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$86
14 days+$241
30 days+$1,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$8,784
other 15% +$1,274
culture 9% +$454
politics 5% −$237
sports 5% +$1,815
crypto 3% +$103
tech 0% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 29% -1.3%
≤30d 24 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 12% -3.7%
≤90d 75 +4.4% -5.5% 85% 28% +2.1%
all 203 -4.8% -13.8% 76% 29% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 29% -1.6%
10% -22.1% 13% -11.0%
15% -29.6% 7% -19.6%
20% -36.5% 3% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$594) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$69 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.34 per $1 lost it wins $4.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$19,214
Realized+$11,270
Unrealized+$1,000
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses154 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions18
Markets (closed)203 / 221
History coverage285d
Avg bet$670
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $7,873 $8,282 +$408 (+5%)
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $3,743 $3,839 +$96 (+3%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $2,095 $2,290 +$195 (+9%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $1,809 $1,911 +$101 (+6%)
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? No 82¢ 96¢ $515 $601 +$86 (+17%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $466 $461 −$5 (-1%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $394 $422 +$28 (+7%)
Trump pays Jan 6 rioter? No 82¢ 94¢ $322 $365 +$43 (+13%)
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $331 $347 +$16 (+5%)
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $239 $247 +$8 (+3%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $154 $185 +$31 (+20%)
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 76¢ $52 $47 −$5 (-10%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No 74¢ 57¢ $38 $30 −$9 (-22%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 89¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 20 $211 +$16 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 3 Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $154 +$9 +6%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $420 +$49 +12%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, Jun 14 $68 +$4 +5%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 14 $74 +$9 +12%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,455 +$76 +5%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 Jun 13 $12 +$1 +6%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 12 $126 +$6 +5%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 12 $608 +$25 +4%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 10 $475 +$34 +7%
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? Jun 08 $64 $0 +1%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 08 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? Jun 07 $90 +$6 +7%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 01 $229 +$3 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $447 +$23 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $43 +$7 +15%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by May 31? Jun 01 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31? Jun 01 $899 +$34 +4%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,427 +$488 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 30 $5,424 +$357 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $630 +$11 +2%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 21 $74 +$2 +2%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $189 −$2 -1%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $399 +$1 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5,087 +$206 +4%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? May 13 $1,328 +$348 +26%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? May 04 $225 +$15 +7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say "Alien Dot Gov" or "Aliens Dot Gov" in April? May 01 $100 +$8 +8%
US currency with Trump signature issued by April 30, 2026? May 01 $173 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $168 +$32 +19%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? May 01 $366 +$14 +4%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in April? May 01 $490 +$62 +13%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $665 +$18 +3%
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30? May 01 $999 +$34 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $491 +$767 +156%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $3,612 +$402 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $6,272 +$979 +16%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" today? Apr 26 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Apr 24 $18 −$4 -20%
Will A-Train die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Apr 22 $35 $0 +1%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Apr 19 $104 +$18 +18%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 19 $127 +$14 +11%
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by April 30? Apr 18 $191 −$2 -1%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in April? Apr 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Apr 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $58 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $58 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $132 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $132 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 98¢ $35 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $8 1h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL No 95¢ $8 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $215 1h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $25 1h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL No 95¢ $116 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $124 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $17 1h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 2h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $111 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $159 2h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $112 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $112 2h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $26 2h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 96¢ $25 2h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $38 2h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 96¢ $38 2h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $163 2h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 96¢ $164 2h
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $11 5h
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $18 5h
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $18 5h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL No 97¢ $6 5h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL No 97¢ $42 5h
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $28 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,213.75 · official $19,211.82 (match) · 1245 history records