Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe54c…2c69 weather 994 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (175 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+2%) realized +$113 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%503W / 421L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day174.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$38
14 days−$85
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$76
politics 2% −$2
other 1% +$1
world 1% −$5
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (175 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 417 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 24% -11.3%
≤30d 924 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 33% -10.9%
≤90d 924 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 33% -10.9%
all 924 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 33% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover174.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 33% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 17% -19.4%
15% -24.7% 10% -27.2%
20% -32.1% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses503 / 421
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions70
Markets (closed)924 / 994
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day174.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 924 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 77¢ 72¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? No 80¢ 80¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? No 85¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? No 82¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? No 86¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? No 78¢ 82¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? No 92¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by more than 10%? No 76¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 82¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+10%)
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by less than 5%? No 93¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by 5–10%? No 81¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? No 96¢ 92¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? No 75¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? No 81¢ 74¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? No 82¢ 74¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? No 82¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 78¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? No 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Türkiye score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 93¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 68¢ $3 44m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $6 44m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $4 53m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 87¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? SELL No 81¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.57 · official $273.79 (match) · 3500 history records