Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe54d…fdec
sports · 274 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$20,925 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27,083 · open −$5,600
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43,273
Realized+$27,083
Unrealized−$5,600
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses189 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,489
Open positions22
Markets (closed)263 / 274
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,508
Trades / day147.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 22 History 263 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,000
7 days−$6,727
14 days+$25,358
30 days+$27,083
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $15,924 $15,362 −$562 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 81¢ $14,092 $13,609 −$483 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 58¢ $6,142 $4,329 −$1,813 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 82¢ 100¢ $3,290 $3,998 +$708 (+22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 88¢ 97¢ $3,003 $3,306 +$302 (+10%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $1,350 $875 −$475 (-35%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 81¢ 14¢ $2,433 $405 −$2,028 (-83%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $160 $214 +$54 (+34%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ 19¢ $642 $192 −$450 (-70%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $153 $158 +$4 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $135 +$65 (+93%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $157 $128 −$29 (-18%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $170 $115 −$55 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 28¢ $177 $85 −$92 (-52%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 64¢ 3¢ $645 $35 −$610 (-95%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+8%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Up 52¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 75¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,315 −$2,523 -76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,150 +$350 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,421 +$44 +3%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $330 +$170 +52%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1,596 −$377 -24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $188 −$181 -96%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $990 +$10 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $970 +$30 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 12 $375 −$375 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 12 $325 −$325 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $422 −$422 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,803 +$697 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $78 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $850 +$149 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $873 +$172 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,940 +$556 +19%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4,648 −$2,714 -58%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1,620 +$380 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12,697 −$7,043 -56%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2,853 +$147 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 11 $380 −$162 -43%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 11 $143 −$143 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $410 $0 -0%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $241 +$80 +33%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $716 +$323 +45%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2,231 +$45 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,053 +$164 +16%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $249 +$16 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 10? Jun 10 $426 +$74 +17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $813 +$176 +22%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $2,790 +$210 +8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $603 −$166 -28%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $378 +$29 +8%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $1,920 +$80 +4%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $1,601 +$666 +42%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $417 +$35 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $1,031 −$799 -78%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $780 −$644 -82%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $112 +$13 +12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $341 +$35 +10%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $212 +$38 +18%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,321 +$366 +16%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $810 +$190 +24%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $735 +$265 +36%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $180 +$20 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $480 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $306 +$94 +31%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $389 +$19 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$14,254
world 23% +$39,330
finance 3% −$2,680
other 3% −$894
politics 0% +$34
crypto 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1,252 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $183 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 95¢ $301 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 95¢ $174 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 89¢ $246 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 89¢ $191 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 89¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 83¢ $828 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 83¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 83¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $73 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 80¢ $283 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 80¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 80¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 80¢ $91 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 48¢ $237 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 41¢ $201 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 28¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 28¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 28¢ $163 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 28¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 28¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 56¢ $280 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 87¢ $164 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 87¢ $271 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 94¢ $128 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 94¢ $67 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 94¢ $78 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 94¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 94¢ $78 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -6.9% -15.8% 74% 37% -13.9%
≤30d 263 -8.1% -16.9% 72% 35% -2.9%
≤90d 263 -8.1% -16.9% 72% 35% -2.9%
all 263 -8.1% -16.9% 72% 35% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover147.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 35% -2.9%
10% -24.8% 15% -12.1%
15% ← realistic here -32.1% 7% -20.6%
20% -38.7% 3% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,273.23 · official $43,275.93 (match) · 3500 history records