Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe54f…49da sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$225 (-12%) realized −$220 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days−$238
14 days−$225
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$26
world 18% −$308
other 11% +$58
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -42.1% -47.7% 22% 22% -54.3%
≤30d 34 -38.6% -44.5% 29% 29% -39.2%
≤90d 50 -31.6% -38.1% 32% 32% -27.2%
all 81 -25.8% -32.9% 32% 32% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 32% -21.3%
10% -39.3% 32% -28.8%
15% -45.2% 32% -35.7%
20% -50.6% 31% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 55
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)81 / 87
History coverage154d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+193%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-85%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $16 −$7 -43%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $279 −$275 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $81 +$48 +60%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$13 -41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $36 +$52 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $12 −$12 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $46 +$52 +114%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $14 +$13 +93%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $13 +$15 +114%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $35 +$28 +79%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $28 +$17 +60%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $40 +$39 +97%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $8 −$8 -97%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) May 23 $61 −$60 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet May 22 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner May 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 22 $16 +$19 +116%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $25 +$36 +146%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $52 +$45 +86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $57 +$43 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 12 $32 −$31 -99%
Francavilla: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 04 $12 −$12 -98%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 26 $41 +$31 +75%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Apr 23 $42 −$42 -99%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playof Apr 10 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Apr 06 $11 −$11 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals Apr 05 $20 +$35 +172%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Apr 05 $18 +$15 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 05 $12 −$12 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Alexandre Mu Apr 04 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $50 1h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 34h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 34h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 18¢ $5 44h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $9 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $279 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $81 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $28 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 22¢ $18 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $6 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $36 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $12 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 12¢ $12 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 26¢ $20 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $98 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 24¢ $4 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $46 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 51¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 51¢ $14 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 100¢ $28 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 46¢ $13 11d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 53¢ $16 11d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 41¢ $10 11d
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 13d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 52¢ $30 13d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 41¢ $21 13d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Lynn Vision 38¢ $18 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 55¢ $35 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 62¢ $28 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.09 · official $71.10 (match) · 121 history records