Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe550…6f6e weather 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,187 (-14%) realized −$1,184 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$265
14 days−$265
30 days−$774
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$268
other 31% −$418
sports 16% −$577
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -12.8% -21.1% 3% 1% -15.0%
≤30d 250 -14.0% -22.2% 3% 1% -20.8%
≤90d 258 -14.7% -22.8% 3% 2% -23.2%
all 258 -14.7% -22.8% 3% 2% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 2% -23.2%
10% -30.2% 1% -30.6%
15% -36.9% 1% -37.3%
20% -43.1% 0% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1,184
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 249
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage54d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? No 57¢ 42¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $26 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $88 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $21 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 20 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $8 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $42 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 20 $31 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 20 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $45 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$2 -45%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 22? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $29 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $44 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 20 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$2 -46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 79¢ $39 2m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 81¢ $40 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 90¢ $45 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 90¢ $45 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 41m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 41m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 51m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 51m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 87¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 80¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 81¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 85¢ $42 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $43 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 61¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 61¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 62¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 62¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL No 80¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 82¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.30 · official $8.30 (match) · 1028 history records