Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe554…3d62 crypto 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$441 (-27%) realized −$441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%59W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$218
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$546
other 2% +$19
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -32.0% -38.5% 17% 17% -52.8%
≤30d 154 -32.0% -38.5% 17% 17% -52.8%
≤90d 154 -32.0% -38.5% 17% 17% -52.8%
all 372 -34.9% -41.1% 16% 16% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 16% -41.9%
10% -46.7% 15% -47.5%
15% -51.9% 14% -52.6%
20% -56.6% 14% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses59 / 313
Open positions0
Markets (closed)372 / 372
History coverage127d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 372 Trades
no open positions (285 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +163%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -79%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +157%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$19 +2373%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +136%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +251%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -79%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$5 +1508%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -53%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 936 history records