Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe558…dcd2 sports 322 markets active 19h ago coverage 181d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$32,048 (+2%) realized +$31,748 · open +$300
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate64%206W / 115L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$4,018per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$6,214est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 181d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$2,732
other 25% +$75,147
politics 0% +$510
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.8% -23.8% 58% 42% -70.8%
≤30d 144 +102.8% +83.5% 68% 47% -6.2%
≤90d 295 +67.7% +51.7% 62% 45% -6.4%
all 321 +65.6% +49.9% 64% 47% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.9% 47% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here +35.5% 37% -13.9%
15% +22.4% 32% -22.2%
20% +10.4% 27% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,652) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +126% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,628 vs −$2,256 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$820
Realized+$31,748
Unrealized+$300
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses206 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$6,214
Open positions1
Markets (closed)321 / 322
History coverage181d
Avg bet$4,018
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $520 $820 +$300 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $6,176 +$4,904 +79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $308 −$300 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,486 +$1,618 +65%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $476 +$550 +116%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $82 +$27 +32%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $37,413 +$1,354 +4%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $763 −$741 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,772 −$1,724 -97%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $887 +$861 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 11 $402 +$69 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $136 −$132 -97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3,055 +$45 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5,251 −$5,219 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $129,109 −$128,800 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $483 −$469 -97%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 10 $8 +$5 +70%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $216 −$210 -97%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $544 +$11 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1,899 −$1,866 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 09 $730 −$730 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $1,840 +$288 +16%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 09 $746 +$254 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $636 −$619 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5 Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 09 $133 −$129 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $1,852 +$135 +7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $352 +$582 +165%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $3,940 +$675 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $35,724 +$7,608 +21%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 04 $4,634 +$613 +13%
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Jun 04 $5,120 +$614 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 04 $227 +$81 +36%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $794 +$581 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $707 +$743 +105%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 04 $1,838 −$1,810 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $11,739 +$12,846 +109%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $40,756 +$2,037 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $251 −$244 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $27 +$14 +52%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $5,554 +$424 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 03 $2,408 +$412 +17%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $1,052 −$1,025 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $324 −$317 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $366 −$357 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $2,002 +$220 +11%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $574 −$561 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $2,947 +$150 +5%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 01 $2,498 +$7 +0%
Will Mac Meissner win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 01 $37 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $6,176 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $19 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $289 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $0 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $474 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $548 2d
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 48¢ $185 2d
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 44¢ $290 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $7 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $76 2d
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $39 2d
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $535 3d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Phoenix Mercury $763 4d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Phoenix Mercury $0 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights $1,760 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights $12 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 BUY Under $136 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $3,055 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 64¢ $289 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 64¢ $64 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 64¢ $115 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 64¢ $145 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 64¢ $2,234 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 59¢ $2,404 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $36,888 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $92,221 5d
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 96¢ $37,374 5d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 50¢ $887 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $820.00 · official $820.00 (match) · 1494 history records