Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe559…1300 other 329 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,166 (-5%) realized −$5,973 · open +$807
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%115W / 232L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$2,878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 180d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$47,382
politics 10% −$8,598
world 5% −$293
weather 1% −$48
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -88.3% -89.4% 4% 4% -86.0%
≤30d 139 -7.3% -16.2% 40% 20% -37.0%
≤90d 264 -5.8% -14.7% 36% 21% -60.7%
all 347 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 20% -67.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 20% -67.6%
10% -21.6% 16% -70.7%
15% -29.2% 13% -73.6%
20% -36.1% 12% -76.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$298 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$2,878
Realized−$5,973
Unrealized+$807
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses115 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions54
Markets (closed)347 / 329
History coverage180d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $188 $650 +$461 (+245%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $268 $531 +$262 (+98%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $39 $255 +$217 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $39 $235 +$197 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $39 $185 +$147 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $123 $176 +$54 (+44%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $39 $135 +$96 (+250%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 52¢ 93¢ $50 $90 +$40 (+80%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $39 $67 +$29 (+74%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $39 $65 +$27 (+69%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $3 $47 +$43 (+1301%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 21¢ $3 $42 +$38 (+1151%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $3 $22 +$19 (+563%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $3 $21 +$17 (+515%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $106 $14 −$92 (-86%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+293%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $3 $12 +$8 (+245%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 19¢ $0 $10 +$9 (+2390%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-81%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $39 $10 −$29 (-75%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+137%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 14¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+1686%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 31¢ 7¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $157 −$12 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $31 −$19 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $309 −$276 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $21 +$42 +199%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $1 $0 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$1,005 +9900%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $38 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 27h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 27h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $104 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $103 27h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 27h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 27h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 27h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 27h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 27h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $114 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $157 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,877.74 · official $2,877.90 (match) · 3075 history records