Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E5 0xe560…74a2 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,050 (-17%) realized −$1,068 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$1,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$504
14 days−$402
30 days−$547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$916
sports 18% +$376
crypto 3% −$20
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.3% -5.6% 17% 17% -27.4%
≤30d 9 +6.8% -3.4% 33% 33% -24.9%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 27% -24.0%
all 11 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 27% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 27% -24.0%
10% -17.9% 27% -31.3%
15% -25.8% 27% -37.9%
20% -33.1% 18% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$154 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,082
Realized−$1,068
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 22
History coverage68d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $480 $564 +$84 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $184 $147 −$37 (-20%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $199 −$158 -79%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $789 −$35 -4%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $188 +$419 +223%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 Jun 14 $203 −$15 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $696 −$687 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $488 −$28 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $504 +$101 +20%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $284 −$280 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $146 +$135 +92%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $384 −$27 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $405 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $41 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $199 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $200 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $151 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $153 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 18¢ $154 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 30¢ $188 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 SELL 49¢ $188 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 BUY 52¢ $203 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $202 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $505 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $506 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $191 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $190 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $123 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $513 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,082.27 · official $1,085.05 (match) · 124 history records