Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E5 0xe564…a631 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$106 (+18%) realized +$101 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$135
14 days+$113
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$83
sports 10% +$17
crypto 4% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +24.4% +12.5% 82% 82% +14.7%
≤30d 13 +13.4% +2.6% 77% 69% +8.8%
≤90d 13 +13.4% +2.6% 77% 69% +8.8%
all 13 +13.4% +2.6% 77% 69% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 69% +8.8%
10% -7.2% 54% -1.6%
15% -16.2% 46% -11.1%
20% -24.4% 31% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$26 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 70¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $169 +$40 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$17 -69%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$24 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $54 +$57 +105%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $139 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $35 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $54 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $38 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.39 · official $30.39 (match) · 27 history records