Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E5 0xe564…1e80 sports 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$410 (+5%) realized +$433 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%126W / 133L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,053
7 days−$708
14 days−$401
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$229
other 2% +$27
economics 1% −$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -29.1% -35.9% 38% 38% -39.0%
≤30d 92 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 46% -16.0%
≤90d 259 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 47% -6.5%
all 259 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 47% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 47% -6.5%
10% -17.3% 46% -15.4%
15% -25.3% 44% -23.6%
20% -32.6% 41% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses126 / 133
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage64d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Alkmaar: Pieter De Lange vs Marc Majdandzic Marc Majdandzic 46¢ 24¢ $49 $26 −$23 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Duru Soke Jun 28 $54 +$40 +74%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Doosan Bears Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Jun 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 28 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage Jun 28 $63 −$63 -100%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 28 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions Jun 28 $68 −$68 -100%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 28 $91 −$91 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich Jun 28 $115 −$115 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $55 +$40 +74%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $58 +$56 +97%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 24 $40 +$31 +78%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $40 +$14 +34%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $44 +$37 +84%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Daniella Britton Jun 23 $25 +$18 +71%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +72%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Schnaitter/Wallner vs Pavlasek/Rikl Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $41 +$17 +42%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $45 +$34 +76%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $32 −$1 -4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $60 +$67 +112%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 22 $126 +$79 +63%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $71 +$55 +78%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $64 +$78 +121%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $8 +$3 +40%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 22 $60 −$6 -9%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $35 −$23 -65%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $48 +$19 +39%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $58 +$48 +84%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $98 +$92 +94%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $45 +$36 +79%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren Jun 19 $41 +$40 +97%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 17 $32 −$18 -57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $30 −$4 -12%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $27 +$28 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Alkmaar: Pieter De Lange vs Marc Majdandzic BUY Marc Majdandzic 46¢ $50 1h
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Duru Soke SELL Duru Soke 87¢ $94 1h
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Duru Soke BUY Duru Soke 49¢ $54 4h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 85¢ $95 6h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $55 7h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $114 8h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $58 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $35 4d
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R SELL 9z Team 94¢ $71 4d
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY 9z Team 52¢ $40 4d
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Miguel Damas 53¢ $54 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 73¢ $54 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $40 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume SELL Himeno Sakatsume 94¢ $80 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume BUY Himeno Sakatsume 50¢ $44 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Daniella Britton SELL Julia Riera 97¢ $43 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Daniella Britton BUY Julia Riera 56¢ $25 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Schnaitter/Wallner vs Pavlasek/Rikl BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 49¢ $35 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $55 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 15¢ $3 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 52¢ $41 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $78 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $45 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Venus Williams 55¢ $26 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Venus Williams 47¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich BUY Miguel Tobon 49¢ $115 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 54¢ $32 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing SELL Max Basing 100¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.59 · official $26.65 · 506 history records