Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe566…b9e4 other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate21%31W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$34
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$27
politics 23% +$52
sports 21% −$17
crypto 12% −$1
world 6% +$4
tech 3% −$3
finance 2% −$5
culture 2% −$2
economics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 64 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 112 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 1% -9.5%
all 147 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses31 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage108d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $105 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $422 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $94 +$1 +1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $512 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $55 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $246 −$4 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $271 −$2 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $57 −$7 -13%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $291 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 11 $55 −$4 -8%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $338 $0 -0%
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 09 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $60 +$1 +2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $395 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $194 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $40 56m
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 1h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 9h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $56 10h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $56 18h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $65 19h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $65 27h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 27h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 33h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 33h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $57 34h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $58 41h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 42h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 47h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $56 47h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $56 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 3d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $58 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.38 · official $40.38 (match) · 532 history records