Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:52:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe569…e9b7 world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$255 (+1%) realized +$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%19W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,146per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$34
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$77
economics 21% +$57
other 14% +$100
crypto 5% +$15
politics 5% +$5
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 19 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 0% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,544) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$2,604
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses19 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage100d
Avg bet$2,146
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,198 $1,198 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $892 $892 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $513 $514 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $2,601 +$3 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,596 +$5 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $2,569 +$26 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,560 +$10 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,544 +$15 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $2,502 +$41 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2,489 +$15 +1%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $2,486 +$2 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $2,480 +$5 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $2,464 +$17 +1%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $2,454 +$10 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $2,449 +$5 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $2,432 +$17 +1%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this Apr 20 $2,427 +$5 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 14 $2,425 +$2 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $2,413 +$12 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $590 +$2 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $1,771 +$50 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $2,349 +$12 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,198 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 100¢ $478 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $892 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,601 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,163 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $345 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $54 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $94 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $228 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $267 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $495 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $18 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $495 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $58 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $495 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $119 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $38 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $151 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $56 16d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,560 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,544 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $2,502 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,489 42d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $2,486 43d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,480 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,603.67 · official $2,603.67 (match) · 60 history records