Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe569…fc90 other 261 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$191 (+4%) realized +$188 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%140W / 120L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$138
politics 6% +$22
world 2% +$8
tech 0% −$6
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.4% -40.7% 57% 29% -9.3%
≤30d 27 +35.3% +22.4% 52% 37% -5.2%
≤90d 67 +14.5% +3.6% 45% 37% -8.2%
all 260 +4.7% -5.3% 54% 37% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 37% -6.3%
10% -14.3% 27% -15.3%
15% -22.6% 22% -23.5%
20% -30.2% 17% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$188
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses140 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage183d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 51¢ 70¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $23 +$3 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $119 +$9 +7%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $23 −$5 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $31 +$5 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $11 +$3 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $6 +$6 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4 +$10 +230%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$15 +1433%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $7 +$4 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $99 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $4 +$2 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $92 +$19 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $15 −$13 -89%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $189 +$14 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $97 +$83 +85%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $3 +$12 +368%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $3 +$11 +347%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $6 +$25 +406%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $5 +$8 +161%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $152 −$105 -70%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $119 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $119 8d
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL No 94¢ $1 8d
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY No 56¢ $1 8d
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 99¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $13 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 14d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 15d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 16d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 17d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.06 · official $11.06 (match) · 602 history records