Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe569…e759 sports 687 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,876 (+8%) realized +$2,702 · open +$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%305W / 376L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$391
7 days+$781
14 days+$2,983
30 days+$2,764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$1,672
other 33% +$838
crypto 1% +$117
world 0% +$35
politics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +5.1% -4.9% 50% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 543 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 46% -1.5%
≤90d 681 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 44% -3.2%
all 681 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 44% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 44% -3.2%
10% -21.6% 43% -12.5%
15% -29.2% 40% -20.9%
20% -36.2% 34% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$38 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$724
Realized+$2,702
Unrealized+$174
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses305 / 376
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions6
Markets (closed)681 / 687
History coverage53d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 48¢ $100 $148 +$48 (+48%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 62¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 35¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 90¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 56¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 26¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 350 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$88 +172%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +139%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$48 +48%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$71 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$74 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$101 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$212 +414%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $37 +$219 +596%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $180 −$178 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $115 +$64 +56%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$77 +76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 +$30 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$63 +124%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 +$77 +152%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$115 +226%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $244 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY Portugal 71¢ $101 4h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $51 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 7h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 15h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 16h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 23h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 24h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $724.36 · official $745.05 · 1168 history records