Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe56a…b88e other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$1,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$21
sports 11% +$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.2% +0.6% 62% 62% +8.7%
≤30d 8 +11.2% +0.6% 62% 62% +8.7%
≤90d 8 +11.2% +0.6% 62% 62% +8.7%
all 8 +11.2% +0.6% 62% 62% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 62% +8.7%
10% -9.0% 50% -1.7%
15% -17.8% 50% -11.2%
20% -25.8% 25% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$1,154
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage87d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $249 $250 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $186 $185 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $180 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $174 $179 +$5 (+3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $129 $131 +$2 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$4 +51%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$4 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$3 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$11 +142%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $73 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $87 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $63 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $46 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $65 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $114 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $126 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $85 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $147 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $173 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 37h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 40h
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el BUY Yes 47¢ $2 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,154.42 · official $1,154.42 (match) · 33 history records