Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe56b…ea26 world 66 markets active 14h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,410 (+5%) realized +$1,264 · open +$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate77%48W / 14L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days+$1,357
14 days+$1,443
30 days+$1,605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$1,401
crypto 6% +$134
politics 4% +$174
other 2% −$398
economics 1% +$21
tech 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +11.1% +0.5% 83% 22% -2.7%
≤30d 46 +8.4% -1.9% 83% 26% -2.9%
≤90d 60 +4.3% -5.6% 77% 23% -5.6%
all 62 +4.9% -5.1% 77% 26% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 26% -5.4%
10% -14.2% 18% -14.5%
15% -22.5% 8% -22.7%
20% -30.1% 5% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$64 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$1,461
Realized+$1,264
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses48 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage153d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $1,109 $1,322 +$213 (+19%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $201 $130 −$71 (-35%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+133%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $572 +$41 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $520 +$32 +6%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $184 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $317 −$162 -51%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $117 −$3 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $7,101 +$558 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $990 +$41 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $4,738 +$400 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $142 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $576 −$2 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $864 +$45 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $636 +$265 +42%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $128 +$48 +38%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +106%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $493 +$54 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $130 +$11 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $344 +$23 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $216 −$7 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $349 +$19 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $84 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $269 +$32 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $196 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $54 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $277 +$6 +2%
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $27 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 07 $119 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $144 +$9 +6%
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $51 +$17 +33%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $409 −$14 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $360 +$17 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $89 +$7 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $246 +$39 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $335 +$38 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $107 +$2 +2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $152 +$10 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $190 +$50 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $16 −$3 -19%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 29 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 28 $20 +$5 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $19 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $0 $0 -30%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $439 −$235 -54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 16 $239 −$3 -1%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Apr 16 $437 −$409 -94%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? Apr 16 $117 +$64 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $324 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $65 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $50 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $22 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $21 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 30¢ $47 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 50¢ $25 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 44¢ $22 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,461.13 · official $1,461.13 (match) · 429 history records