Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E5 0xe573…8f13 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$993 (-36%) realized −$1,264 · open +$271
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$1,353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$861
14 days−$1,006
30 days−$1,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$678
sports 2% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-87.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -83.7% -85.3% 8% 8% -63.4%
≤30d 14 -86.1% -87.4% 7% 7% -66.7%
≤90d 14 -86.1% -87.4% 7% 7% -66.7%
all 14 -86.1% -87.4% 7% 7% -66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -87.4% 7% -66.7%
10% -88.6% 7% -69.9%
15% -89.7% 7% -72.8%
20% -90.7% 7% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -86% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$285 vs −$99 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,353
Realized−$1,264
Unrealized+$271
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 77¢ 96¢ $1,082 $1,353 +$271 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $290 −$281 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $150 −$145 -96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $250 −$242 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $225 −$217 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $300 +$285 +95%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $50 −$48 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,000 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $190 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 8d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $300 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,353.32 · official $1,297.23 · 25 history records