Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe574…53bd crypto 1385 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$595 (-1%) realized −$595 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate80%1109W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$227
14 days+$225
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +12.7% +2.0% 77% 55% -3.3%
≤30d 205 +3.7% -6.1% 79% 45% -8.0%
≤90d 990 -2.2% -11.5% 72% 37% -11.4%
all 1385 -1.4% -10.8% 80% 27% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 27% -9.8%
10% -19.3% 23% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 20% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 17% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$595
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1109 / 276
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1385 / 1385
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1385 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $87 −$35 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $162 +$30 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$17 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $112 +$29 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $101 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $206 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $554 +$58 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $256 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$25 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $127 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $152 +$34 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $162 +$23 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $352 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $151 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$41 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $226 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $685 −$591 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $303 +$52 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$33 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $251 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $176 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $281 +$97 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $76 −$25 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $45 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $42 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $27 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $140 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records