Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe577…6c42 other 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 442d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 441d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,462 (+1%) realized +$4,514 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate78%342W / 96L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$5,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 442d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 22% +$3,731
other 17% +$2,662
world 16% −$386
politics 15% −$626
crypto 12% −$6,390
sports 10% +$3,569
tech 7% −$525
finance 0% +$136
culture 0% −$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.8% -12.9% 73% 23% -12.0%
≤30d 70 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 31% -9.3%
≤90d 202 +0.8% -8.8% 79% 38% -9.2%
all 438 -0.1% -9.6% 78% 30% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 30% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 17% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 10% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$618) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$262 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$5,484
Realized+$4,514
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses342 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions12
Markets (closed)438 / 450
History coverage442d ⚠
Avg bet$904
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1,693 $1,661 −$32 (-2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $993 $1,006 +$14 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $837 $839 +$2 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $567 $609 +$42 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 98¢ $340 $390 +$50 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $253 $272 +$20 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $190 $199 +$9 (+5%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $190 $198 +$8 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 82¢ 98¢ $164 $196 +$32 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 85¢ $64 $60 −$4 (-6%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 67¢ $134 $5 −$129 (-96%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 11¢ $44 $1 −$43 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $32 +$7 +21%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $443 +$15 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $353 +$7 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $87 +$6 +7%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $618 −$183 -30%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $178 +$13 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $383 −$332 -87%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 $0 -1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $802 +$198 +25%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $190 +$10 +5%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $118 +$12 +10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $284 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,000 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $13 +$6 +48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $231 +$23 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $154 +$9 +6%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $675 +$23 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $255 +$27 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$21 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,078 +$24 +2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $36 −$3 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 −$25 -93%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $23 +$3 +12%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $92 −$88 -96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $17 +$6 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $124 +$6 +5%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$8 +16%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $89 +$3 +3%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $745 +$66 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $76 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 +$24 +44%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $150 +$264 +176%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $109 +$6 +5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $356 +$13 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $507 −$3 -0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $109 +$1 +1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $34 +$6 +18%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $11 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 49m
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $64 6h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 6h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 6h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 7h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $187 7h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $19 10h
Spread: England (-3.5) SELL Ghana 96¢ $38 11h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 79¢ $16 12h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 79¢ $16 12h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $457 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $360 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $55 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $9 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 88¢ $9 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 82¢ $20 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $97 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $28 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $208 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $35 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $48 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $156 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $96 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $12 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $13 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $14 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $40 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $40 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $95 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,483.67 · official $5,483.93 (match) · 3500 history records