Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe579…3ff2 other 63 markets active 14h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%13W / 48L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$14
other 11% −$11
politics 10% −$7
sports 1% +$56
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 48 +1.9% -7.8% 21% 17% -8.2%
all 61 +1.3% -8.3% 21% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 13% -9.4%
10% -17.1% 13% -18.1%
15% -25.1% 11% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses13 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage613d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $117 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $230 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $242 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 +$3 +46%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $8 +$11 +146%
Heat vs. Pacers Apr 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 06 $43 $0 +1%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 06 $22 +$24 +113%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 29 $23 +$14 +61%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 27 $31 +$55 +178%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 25 $24 +$14 +59%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Mar 23 $21 +$7 +33%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 14h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 16h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $14 34h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $14 36h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $6 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $26 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $26 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $19 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $18 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.33 · official $92.33 (match) · 293 history records