Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E5 0xe582…7fd5 sports 253 markets active 16h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,863 (-17%) realized −$2,863 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%104W / 147L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$35
14 days+$3
30 days+$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,958
other 2% +$40
crypto 1% −$50
world 0% −$10
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -23.7% -31.0% 40% 35% -27.2%
≤30d 116 -5.1% -14.2% 37% 35% +0.2%
≤90d 236 -1.7% -11.1% 42% 40% +2.5%
all 251 -4.1% -13.2% 41% 39% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 39% -25.2%
10% -21.5% 37% -32.4%
15% -29.1% 35% -38.9%
20% -36.1% 33% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$50 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,863
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses104 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 253
History coverage254d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $4 +$6 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $4 +$4 +108%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $4 −$3 -88%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $5 +$8 +158%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$14 +138%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $17 +$11 +66%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $2 −$1 -77%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $35 +$7 +19%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $2 +$4 +233%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$12 +122%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $1 −$1 -61%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $2 −$1 -91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 $0 -15%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1 +$4 +257%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $5 +$4 +80%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -62%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$25 +50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$21 +22%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $0 15h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Washington Nationals 86¢ $4 24h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Washington Nationals 86¢ $2 24h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Washington Nationals 86¢ $4 24h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 35¢ $4 28h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $4 29h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Atlanta Braves $0 42h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $4 43h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $0 43h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $3 43h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 30¢ $0 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 38¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 29¢ $8 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $8 6d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 6d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $43 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins $0 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $11 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 30¢ $2 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 30¢ $2 6d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 20¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 644 history records