Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe583…e406 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$157 (-12%) realized −$99 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate71%80W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$84
crypto 48% −$71
world 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -8.8% -17.5% 75% 26% -21.3%
≤30d 107 -8.8% -17.5% 75% 26% -21.3%
≤90d 107 -8.8% -17.5% 75% 26% -21.3%
all 112 -12.8% -21.1% 71% 25% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 25% -25.8%
10% -28.7% 11% -32.9%
15% -35.6% 6% -39.4%
20% -41.9% 4% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses80 / 32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)112 / 116
History coverage152d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $457 $425 −$32 (-7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-11%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 27m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.12 · official $528.28 (match) · 216 history records