Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E5 0xe584…a7fc other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$279 (+10%) realized +$281 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days+$247
14 days+$247
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$94
sports 38% +$352
world 5% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -14.1% -22.3% 28% 28% +0.8%
≤30d 36 -14.1% -22.3% 28% 28% +0.8%
≤90d 36 -14.1% -22.3% 28% 28% +0.8%
all 36 -14.1% -22.3% 28% 28% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 28% +0.8%
10% -29.7% 28% -8.8%
15% -36.5% 28% -17.6%
20% -42.7% 22% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$41 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized+$281
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions10
Markets (closed)36 / 46
History coverage18d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 52¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ 30¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 +$224 +873%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $122 +$133 +108%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 +$64 +126%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $152 +$73 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$51 +51%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $202 +$82 +41%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $203 +$315 +156%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$22 -43%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$141 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$108 +106%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $152 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $152 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 6h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 6h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 8h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 8h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 8h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $26 8h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 8h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $26 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 77¢ $255 15h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 26¢ $20 16h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $102 28h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 28h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 28h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $225 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 33h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 33h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.88 · official $647.89 (match) · 102 history records