Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe586…a592 politics 116 markets active 4h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$106 (-8%) realized −$122 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%26W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$4
14 days−$50
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$28
politics 23% −$15
other 15% −$11
sports 8% −$54
crypto 5% −$10
finance 3% +$16
tech 3% −$8
economics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.1% -27.7% 28% 17% -10.3%
≤30d 24 -15.2% -23.3% 29% 21% -18.6%
≤90d 108 -5.1% -14.1% 24% 14% -18.9%
all 108 -5.1% -14.1% 24% 14% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 14% -18.9%
10% -22.3% 7% -26.7%
15% -29.8% 6% -33.8%
20% -36.7% 3% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses26 / 82
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)108 / 116
History coverage80d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 15¢ 39¢ $11 $29 +$18 (+167%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 68¢ 86¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 68¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+85%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $4 $0 -2%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $236 +$21 +9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $29 −$8 -27%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$7 -57%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -37%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $9 −$2 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $119 −$47 -39%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4 $0 -7%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $2 $0 -13%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $33 +$6 +18%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $6 $0 +4%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 13 $70 −$11 -16%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 10 $4 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $3 +$4 +130%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 02 $2 $0 +19%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $12 +$8 +70%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $44 −$4 -9%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri Apr 30 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 29 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09? Apr 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026? Apr 24 $4 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 23 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Brian Poindexter be the Democratic nominee for OH-07? Apr 22 $4 $0 -10%
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? Apr 22 $2 $0 -14%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Apr 22 $9 $0 -4%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamen Apr 21 $23 +$2 +7%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti Apr 21 $9 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $12 $0 +3%
Will FURIA win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 19 $3 $0 -3%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 Apr 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg Apr 15 $18 −$4 -24%
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? Apr 15 $1 $0 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $3 4h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 81¢ $3 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $4 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 6h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 78¢ $4 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 17h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 77¢ $4 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 24h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 81¢ $5 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 36h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $3 41h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 79¢ $6 42h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? SELL No 72¢ $11 43h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 68¢ $25 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 68¢ $9 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $22 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $3 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $26 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.73 · official $47.69 · 542 history records