Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

E5 0xe587…95e4 economics 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 520d

RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$728 (-88%) realized −$721 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$118per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	5	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$146 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage

Net worth$55

Realized−$721

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage520d

Avg bet$118

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$48	$45	−$3 (-6%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	9¢	6¢	$14	$10	−$4 (-28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Oct 28	$100	−$100	-100%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?	Jun 17	$70	−$70	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?	Jan 29	$25	−$25	-100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	Jan 26	$33	−$33	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	Jan 26	$500	−$500	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	26¢	$102	55m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	8¢	$50	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	9¢	$51	1h
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	BUY No	2¢	$100	244d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?	BUY No	2¢	$50	377d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?	BUY No	12¢	$20	411d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$25	516d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$33	519d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$500	519d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.42 · official $55.42 (match) · 9 history records