Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe588…ad2b world 140 markets active 16h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$144 (-3%) realized −$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate47%66W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$152
14 days−$186
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$174
crypto 16% −$16
politics 13% −$3
other 12% +$4
sports 4% +$2
finance 1% +$3
weather 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 9% -20.8%
≤30d 131 -13.2% -21.5% 46% 12% -13.2%
≤90d 140 -13.1% -21.3% 47% 15% -13.1%
all 140 -13.1% -21.3% 47% 15% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 15% -13.1%
10% -28.9% 7% -21.4%
15% -35.7% 4% -29.0%
20% -42.0% 1% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses66 / 74
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage70d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 −$17 -56%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $415 −$86 -21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$5 +74%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $28 −$13 -47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $77 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $238 −$6 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -11%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $35 −$5 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $82 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $69 −$8 -12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 12 $116 −$18 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -12%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $30 −$2 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $14 −$8 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $172 −$11 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $162 +$5 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $78 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $7 −$1 -10%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $30 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $15 −$7 -48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $35 −$15 -44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $397 +$5 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 15h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $150 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 3d
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? SELL No 97¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $7 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $10 3d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $35 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $42 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $10 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 99¢ $14 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 91¢ $38 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $15 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $37 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 66¢ $20 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 675 history records