Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe58a…e7dc crypto 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$290 (-9%) realized −$216 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%37W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$211
14 days−$128
30 days−$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$488
crypto 29% −$286
other 11% −$105
sports 10% −$129
economics 9% −$263
politics 7% −$72
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +22.0% +10.4% 37% 37% -49.1%
≤30d 34 +58.7% +43.6% 35% 35% -44.2%
≤90d 81 +3.8% -6.1% 30% 28% -46.3%
all 117 -1.6% -11.0% 32% 31% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 31% -18.9%
10% -19.5% 29% -26.7%
15% -27.3% 29% -33.8%
20% -34.4% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$18 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized−$216
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses37 / 80
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)117 / 125
History coverage200d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $52 $42 −$10 (-18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $55 $38 −$17 (-31%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $42 $29 −$13 (-30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $160 −$29 -18%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $36 −$22 -60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$16 +265%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$9 +291%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$11 +344%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +88%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +250%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$95 +1845%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $506 −$250 -49%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +117%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 22 $10 −$4 -39%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 18 $20 −$16 -78%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 18 $15 +$33 +223%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 25 $13 −$5 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 25 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 25 $3 −$1 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 22 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 18 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $150 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $131 22h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $14 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 25h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $36 26h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $22 47h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $110 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 44¢ $98 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.96 · official $340.96 (match) · 433 history records