Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe58a…702d other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$171 (-14%) realized −$129 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$60
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$152
sports 5% −$42
world 2% −$25
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.0% -23.1% 60% 60% -26.4%
≤30d 18 -16.9% -24.9% 56% 56% -31.6%
≤90d 33 -13.1% -21.3% 64% 52% -23.7%
all 33 -13.1% -21.3% 64% 52% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 52% -23.7%
10% -28.9% 45% -31.0%
15% -35.7% 27% -37.7%
20% -42.0% 15% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$35 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage46d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 12¢ $55 $13 −$42 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $47 +$9 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $38 +$9 +23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $28 +$11 +38%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $32 +$21 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +62%
Harry Kane: 4+ shots Jun 17 $8 +$9 +107%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $68 −$60 -88%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$23 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 +$8 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +47%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 19 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 19 $4 $0 +6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $133 −$129 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $122 +$12 +10%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $62 +$40 +64%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $50 +$12 +25%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $37 +$13 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $29 +$8 +26%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $56 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $47 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $38 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $28 30h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $36 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $53 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $32 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6d
Harry Kane: 4+ shots SELL Yes 99¢ $17 8d
Harry Kane: 4+ shots BUY Yes 47¢ $8 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $68 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $37 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.06 · official $13.06 (match) · 60 history records