Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe58b…d323 other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,103 (-5%) realized −$1,943 · open −$160
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 42L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,036
7 days−$1,228
14 days−$1,148
30 days−$2,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1,734
world 39% −$1,348
sports 8% −$1,881
politics 4% −$721
finance 1% −$238
crypto 1% +$422
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.1% -27.7% 25% 25% -36.2%
≤30d 19 -20.9% -28.4% 32% 21% -20.5%
≤90d 49 -19.7% -27.4% 37% 31% -13.9%
all 77 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 36% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 36% -14.0%
10% -29.8% 27% -22.2%
15% -36.6% 19% -29.7%
20% -42.8% 18% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$513) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$202 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$1,943
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions7
Markets (closed)77 / 87
History coverage120d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $150 $169 +$19 (+13%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $200 $157 −$43 (-21%)
Will Kai Havertz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 36¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+115%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $32 $19 −$13 (-41%)
Will Kai Havertz score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+30%)
Will Kai Havertz score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 43¢ $150 $5 −$145 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,514 −$843 -34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $102 +$334 +327%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,000 −$732 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 13 $32 −$6 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $1,800 +$80 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,450 −$270 -8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $2,545 −$1,823 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,000 +$87 +9%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3,022 +$926 +31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,240 −$23 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong May 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $3,420 +$380 +11%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $615 +$192 +31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1,941 +$1,059 +55%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $1 +$4 +400%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $122 +$78 +64%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 03 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 02 $550 −$324 -59%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $180 −$180 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1,349 +$330 +24%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 27 $532 −$158 -30%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Apr 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 23 $110 +$70 +64%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $188 +$12 +6%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $281 −$279 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $520 −$513 -99%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 08 $369 −$232 -63%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $800 +$829 +104%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 07 $88 −$88 -100%
WTT - Men's Singles: Chuqin Wang vs Sora Matsushima Apr 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 03 $450 −$149 -33%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $10 +$15 +147%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 01 $200 +$25 +12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 19 $800 −$800 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $38 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $30 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $18 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 11¢ $103 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $100 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 57¢ $203 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $154 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $268 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $360 5d
Will Kai Havertz score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5d
Will Kai Havertz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Kai Havertz score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $101 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 18¢ $102 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 23¢ $102 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 24¢ $26 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $1,000 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1,671 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.59 · official $408.67 (match) · 377 history records