Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe58c…4e96 crypto 27 markets active 10d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$185 (+42%) realized +$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 27 +26.9% +14.8% 63% 63% +25.8%
≤90d 27 +26.9% +14.8% 63% 63% +25.8%
all 27 +26.9% +14.8% 63% 63% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.8% 63% +25.8%
10% ← realistic here +3.8% 59% +13.8%
15% -6.2% 56% +2.8%
20% -15.4% 44% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$63 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$12 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $155 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $48 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $45 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $89 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $44 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records