Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe58c…cb93 other 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$6
other 26% −$6
politics 20% −$3
crypto 9% −$1
economics 7% $0
culture 3% $0
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 218
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage172d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $27 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $61 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 19 $33 $0 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $62 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 16 $25 $0 -2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 08 $202 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $91 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 06 $117 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $107 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $27 1h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $27 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 7d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 7d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $26 14d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $27 15d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $35 22d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $35 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $33 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $33 93d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 93d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 93d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $33 93d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $33 94d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $25 94d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $25 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $31 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $31 94d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $24 94d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $24 94d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $29 94d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $29 95d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 95d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $26 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $26 95d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 95d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 901 history records