Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe591…b3f6 crypto 2682 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$11,493 (-72%) realized −$11,493 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%841W / 1716L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day83.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$2,406
tech 1% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 383 +132.6% +110.5% 43% 42% +16.3%
≤30d 1992 +31.0% +18.5% 34% 34% +8.3%
≤90d 2557 +21.2% +9.6% 33% 33% +2.3%
all 2557 +21.2% +9.6% 33% 33% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.6% 33% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -0.9% 32% -7.5%
15% -10.4% 31% -16.4%
20% -19.2% 30% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,493
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses841 / 1716
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2557 / 2682
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day83.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2557 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$57 +5514%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$63 +1589%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$14 +869%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -408%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$75 +178345%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$16 +2904%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$73 -153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$49 +6840%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$34 -626%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$48 -12376%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$90 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$4 -593%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$327 +3445001%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$45 -982%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$94 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records