Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe592…74ad sports 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$837 (+3%) realized +$945 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%86W / 99L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$421est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days+$36
14 days+$188
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$452
other 2% +$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 42% -8.2%
≤30d 149 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 46% -10.4%
≤90d 185 +2.9% -6.9% 46% 46% -6.7%
all 185 +2.9% -6.9% 46% 46% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 46% -6.7%
10% -15.8% 46% -15.6%
15% -23.9% 46% -23.8%
20% -31.4% 46% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$135 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$945
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses86 / 99
Est. fees paid−$421
Open positions2
Markets (closed)185 / 188
History coverage51d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 42¢ 42¢ $210 $208 −$2 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Karol Rosa 48¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $204 +$296 +145%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $143 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $185 −$185 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $150 +$200 +134%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $183 +$167 +92%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $148 −$145 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $116 +$84 +72%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$140 +139%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $162 +$158 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $115 +$84 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $135 −$133 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $109 −$108 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $149 +$191 +128%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $109 +$140 +128%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $148 +$102 +69%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $174 −$172 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $98 +$102 +104%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $52 +$87 +168%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $137 −$135 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $149 +$150 +101%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $129 +$111 +86%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $33 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $142 −$142 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $125 −$122 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $158 +$142 +90%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $284 −$280 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $370 −$366 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $87 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $190 −$190 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $202 +$178 +88%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $247 +$252 +102%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 04 $186 −$184 -99%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $147 +$202 +138%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $244 +$256 +105%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $163 +$135 +83%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $298 −$292 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $102 +$148 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $214 29m
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 48¢ $107 49m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $203 53m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $499 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 35¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $204 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $143 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $60 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $55 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $70 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $350 7h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $14 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $48 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $15 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $54 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $150 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $183 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $46 2d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $1 2d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $13 2d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $2 2d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $55 2d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $7 2d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $7 2d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $7 2d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $23 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $240 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.61 · official $407.61 · 548 history records