Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe593…3de9 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$907 (+13%) realized +$948 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$411
14 days+$556
30 days+$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$185
culture 15% +$797
other 10% −$209
crypto 1% +$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +39.6% +26.3% 57% 57% +41.2%
≤30d 14 +33.8% +21.1% 57% 57% +21.9%
≤90d 22 +29.7% +17.4% 50% 50% +12.2%
all 33 +2.7% -7.1% 39% 39% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 39% +2.0%
10% -16.0% 33% -7.7%
15% -24.1% 33% -16.7%
20% -31.5% 30% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$105 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$948
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage606d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $35 +$10 (+41%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 17¢ $35 $7 −$28 (-79%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 14¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $54 +$49 +91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$93 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $288 +$284 +99%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$90 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $142 −$103 -72%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $150 +$228 +151%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $192 −$8 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $24 +$28 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $231 +$298 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $148 +$24 +16%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $352 −$268 -76%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $95 −$27 -28%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $389 +$801 +206%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $212 −$40 -19%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $390 −$142 -36%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $723 −$334 -46%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $35 +$66 +188%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 03 $612 +$102 +17%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1,050 +$797 +76%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $4 $0 -3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $239 −$212 -89%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 20 $537 −$537 -100%
Will Lebron announce final season Tuesday? Oct 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $111 +$56 +50%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 14 $129 −$129 -100%
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference? Oct 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 13h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $47 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $199 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $162 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $65 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $299 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $51 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $53 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $149 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.52 · official $64.59 · 186 history records