trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +180.2% | +153.5% | 55% | 45% | +24.6% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +164.5% | +139.3% | 50% | 42% | +16.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +164.5% | +139.3% | 50% | 42% | +16.5% |
| all | 12 | +164.5% | +139.3% | 50% | 42% | +16.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +139.3% | 42% | +16.5% |
| 10% | +116.4% | 33% | +5.4% |
| 15% | +95.5% | 33% | -4.8% |
| 20% | +76.3% | 25% | -14.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | Yes | 95¢ | 82¢ | $81 | $70 | −$11 (-14%) |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $599 | +$71 | +12% |
| Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $20 | +$97 | +474% |
| Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $338 | +$168 | +50% |
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $26 | +$78 | +307% |
| Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $9 | +$141 | +1635% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $200 | +$10 | +5% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $303 | −$26 | -9% |