Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe597…4e73 sports 41 markets active 8d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-5%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$5
other 9% −$43
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 41 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 46% -15.3%
≤90d 41 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 46% -15.3%
all 41 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 46% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 46% -15.3%
10% -22.8% 46% -23.4%
15% -30.3% 39% -30.8%
20% -37.1% 37% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 +$4 +70%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $7 +$2 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 −$9 -54%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +112%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 +$7 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$7 -47%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $31 +$43 +140%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$11 +71%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $73 +$24 +33%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$3 -66%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $56 +$18 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 +$27 +64%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +89%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$9 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 +$11 +82%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +78%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +177%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +213%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $9 +$7 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 8d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $7 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $7 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $16 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 55¢ $11 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $11 8d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 8d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 8d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 9d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $14 9d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $7 9d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $85 9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $12 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $8 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $96 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $73 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records