Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe597…00d2 crypto 32 markets active 7d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.2% -5.7% 73% 45% -11.4%
≤30d 32 -15.5% -23.5% 59% 34% -15.5%
≤90d 32 -15.5% -23.5% 59% 34% -15.5%
all 32 -15.5% -23.5% 59% 34% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 34% -15.5%
10% -30.8% 25% -23.6%
15% -37.5% 12% -31.0%
20% -43.7% 9% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage9d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 02 $82 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $80 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records