Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe597…3042 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$714 (+54%) realized +$716 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$701
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 +32.8% +20.2% 60% 40% +41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.2% 40% +41.1%
10% +8.7% 40% +27.6%
15% -1.8% 40% +15.3%
20% -11.4% 40% +4.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$13 · ×18.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.02 per $1 lost it wins $28.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$716
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage262d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? Yes 33¢ 37¢ $47 $53 +$6 (+12%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 09 $100 −$13 -13%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 09 $100 −$13 -13%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 02 $595 +$657 +110%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Nov 24 $419 +$43 +10%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Nov 01 $41 +$28 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.04 · official $75.04 (match) · 16 history records