Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe59a…aaaf other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$6,584 (+39%) realized +$5,714 · open +$870
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,401per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$3,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,371
7 days+$4,371
14 days+$4,371
30 days+$4,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$5,295
sports 33% +$2,011
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+66.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.3% +12.4% 75% 62% +25.7%
≤30d 8 +24.3% +12.4% 75% 62% +25.7%
≤90d 9 +24.6% +12.7% 78% 67% +24.8%
all 10 +83.8% +66.3% 80% 70% +36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +66.3% 70% +36.7%
10% +50.4% 60% +23.6%
15% +35.8% 50% +11.7%
20% +22.5% 50% +0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +84% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$854 vs −$197 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.37 per $1 lost it wins $17.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$3,408
Realized+$5,714
Unrealized+$870
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage180d
Avg bet$1,401
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 72¢ $2,538 $3,408 +$870 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2,034 +$2,507 +123%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3,913 +$131 +3%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $116 −$112 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,048 +$248 +12%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1,011 +$575 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,338 +$826 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $575 +$478 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $609 −$281 -46%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $998 +$270 +27%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $291 +$1,795 +617%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,573 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $4,541 20h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $2,034 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $0 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $3,948 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 88¢ $3,506 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 11¢ $95 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $406 38h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 41h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $1,586 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $2,295 41h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $116 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 41h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,039 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,164 43h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 77¢ $1,053 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $329 44h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $327 44h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $575 46h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $609 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 65¢ $1,304 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,268 41d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $998 77d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor SELL Demoor 100¢ $2,086 179d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Demoor 14¢ $291 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,407.67 · official $3,407.67 (match) · 65 history records