Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe59c…4da7 sports 421 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,437 (+4%) realized +$16,470 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%228W / 192L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$993per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$2,900est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,923now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,162
7 days−$7,285
14 days−$2,606
30 days+$2,744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$9,667
crypto 9% −$1,622
other 4% +$7,345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +7.4% -2.8% 52% 52% -19.0%
≤30d 151 -7.2% -16.0% 53% 52% -8.0%
≤90d 399 -4.4% -13.5% 52% 51% -8.5%
all 420 -1.8% -11.2% 54% 53% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 53% -6.1%
10% -19.7% 48% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here -27.4% 39% -23.3%
20% -34.6% 29% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,191) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$599 vs −$630 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$4,923
Realized+$16,470
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses228 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2,900
Open positions1
Markets (closed)420 / 421
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$993
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 76¢ $4,955 $4,923 −$33 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $7,890 +$2,541 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $5,426 +$2,343 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $100 +$100 +100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $39 +$63 +163%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $570 +$430 +75%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$108 +104%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,868 +$2,016 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,030 −$2,016 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $94 +$58 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1,437 −$1,437 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $114 +$186 +163%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $651 +$349 +54%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $44 +$57 +128%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,748 +$1,475 +54%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 17 $540 −$540 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $2,639 +$1,479 +56%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $1,978 +$1,208 +61%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $2,984 −$2,984 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,564 +$1,458 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $9,911 −$9,911 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,054 +$502 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,383 −$2,022 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,992 −$1,992 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$11 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$170 +415%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $506 −$506 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $695 −$695 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $888 +$611 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1,054 −$1,054 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1,863 −$1,863 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $922 −$922 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $702 +$191 +27%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,474 +$543 +37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7,009 +$7,904 +113%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $989 −$989 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,999 −$2,999 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $709 +$280 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $635 +$157 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $43 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $4,913 23m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 23¢ $1,493 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $1,631 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $10,431 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $7,890 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $7,769 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 94¢ $71 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 94¢ $76 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 94¢ $157 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 94¢ $235 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 94¢ $2,012 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $2,875 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $200 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $19 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $1 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $0 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $0 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $0 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $2 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $2 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $1 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $0 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $0 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $2 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $3 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $2 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $6 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $54 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,922.68 · official $4,922.68 (match) · 3500 history records