Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe59c…e578 sports 1350 markets active 4d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$788 (-4%) realized −$788 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate76%1026W / 324L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$36
14 days−$179
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$273
other 11% +$69
crypto 6% +$3
world 2% +$9
finance 1% −$9
politics 0% −$14
weather 0% −$10
culture 0% +$10
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -18.8% -26.5% 70% 10% -18.6%
≤30d 327 +0.6% -9.0% 79% 23% -9.1%
≤90d 918 -1.1% -10.6% 73% 27% -10.6%
all 1350 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 23% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 23% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 15% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 12% -26.9%
20% -33.9% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$788
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1026 / 324
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1350 / 1350
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1350 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $35 −$10 -30%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $49 +$5 +11%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $16 −$15 -98%
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $48 +$1 +2%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan Jun 10 $44 +$3 +7%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $41 +$3 +7%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $38 +$3 +8%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $37 +$1 +3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $26 $0 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $25 +$1 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $40 +$1 +3%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 $0 +2%
Tucuman: Ryan Dickerson vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 09 $33 $0 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $42 $0 +1%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Timofey Skatov Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $24 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jason Jung Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $45 $0 +1%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $49 +$1 +1%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $24 $0 +2%
Will India win? Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $39 +$1 +3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $39 $0 +1%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $38 $0 +1%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 07 $25 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $31 +$2 +7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 06 $4 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? SELL No 61¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $35 4d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals $0 6d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 100¢ $28 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 96¢ $55 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez SELL Nick Hardt 96¢ $1 6d
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez SELL Nick Hardt 96¢ $48 6d
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Nick Hardt 93¢ $1 6d
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Nick Hardt 93¢ $28 6d
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Nick Hardt 95¢ $19 6d
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan SELL Dominika Salkova 100¢ $47 6d
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan BUY Dominika Salkova 93¢ $44 6d
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja SELL Laura Samson 88¢ $44 6d
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Laura Samson 81¢ $41 6d
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik SELL Elizabeth Mandlik 100¢ $41 6d
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik BUY Elizabeth Mandlik 92¢ $38 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 100¢ $38 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 97¢ $0 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 97¢ $37 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $5 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $29 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $26 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $25 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 98¢ $0 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 98¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records