Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe59d…b97b
weather · 1034 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$396 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$556 · open −$160
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$440
Realized+$556
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses313 / 874
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions66
Markets (closed)1187 / 1034
History coverage29d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day119.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 66 History 1187 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$839
14 days+$1,099
30 days+$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 33¢ 81¢ $15 $35 +$21 (+142%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 34¢ 68¢ $15 $30 +$15 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $15 $18 +$4 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 31¢ 53¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 48¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $15 $11 −$3 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $15 $10 −$4 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Yes 29¢ 52¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 34¢ 57¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 80,000 on May 2, 7AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 82.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 34.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 34.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,000 on April 30, 2AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 63.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 64.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 +71%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for Jun 12 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin above 81,000 on May 12, 9AM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,800 on April 29, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 2,355 on April 29, 3AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 80,200 on May 2, 4AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 4AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 89.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Map Handicap: ZNT.O (-1.5) vs Barça eSports GC (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 +69%
Total Kills Over/Under 20.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 53.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 83,400 on May 6, 3PM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 83,200 on May 6, 10AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 82,000 on May 5, 2AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 82,200 on May 6, 3PM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 2,355 on April 29, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Map Handicap: GX GC (-1.5) vs SK Nebula (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 82,200 on May 6, 12PM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -87%
Total Kills Over/Under 37.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% +$859
crypto 3% −$27
tech 2% −$104
politics 2% −$88
other 2% −$11
world 1% −$17
culture 1% −$17
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 450 -41.1% -46.7% 17% 17% +64.6%
≤30d 1187 -25.1% -32.3% 26% 24% -0.3%
≤90d 1187 -25.1% -32.3% 26% 24% -0.3%
all 1187 -25.1% -32.3% 26% 24% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover119.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 24% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.7% 21% -9.8%
15% -44.7% 17% -18.5%
20% -50.1% 15% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.19 · official $440.19 (match) · 3500 history records