Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe59f…0d08 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,817 (+22%) realized +$10,192 · open −$3,375
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,206per market
Trades / day75.6pace
Fees−$642est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,280
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.7% -11.1% 52% 52% +12.7%
≤30d 25 -1.7% -11.1% 52% 52% +12.7%
≤90d 25 -1.7% -11.1% 52% 52% +12.7%
all 25 -1.7% -11.1% 52% 52% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 52% +12.7%
10% -19.6% 52% +1.9%
15% ← realistic here -27.3% 44% -7.9%
20% -34.5% 44% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,055) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,121 vs −$660 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$10,192
Unrealized−$3,375
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$642
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,206
Trades / day75.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Team Nemesis 15¢ 0¢ $3,386 $11 −$3,375 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $5,450 +$5,456 +100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 +$3 +226%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $923 +$1,080 +117%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $420 +$245 +58%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,720 +$388 +23%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $706 −$697 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $369 +$121 +33%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,714 −$2,688 -99%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $478 −$470 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $564 +$930 +165%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $690 −$683 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $6,109 +$3,536 +58%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $44 −$43 -97%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,055 +$534 +51%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $810 +$586 +72%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $48 +$48 +100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,627 −$1,303 -80%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,000 +$818 +82%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,136 +$823 +72%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $886 −$880 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 4¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 4¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 6¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 6¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 4¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 6¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 6¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 6¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 6¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 6¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 3¢ $129 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 6¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 13¢ $233 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 9¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 15¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 15¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 15¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 15¢ $151 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 15¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 15¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 15¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 15¢ $256 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 15¢ $175 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 23¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 25¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 26¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 26¢ $42 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 23¢ $53 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 26¢ $148 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 26¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.99 · official $10.99 (match) · 467 history records