Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe5a2…16ae crypto 317 markets active 20h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$437 (+6%) realized +$437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate74%233W / 84L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$71
14 days+$401
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$407
other 3% −$86
world 3% −$6
politics 2% +$13
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 +3.9% -6.0% 76% 54% -7.8%
≤30d 306 +3.4% -6.4% 74% 54% -4.5%
≤90d 315 +3.1% -6.7% 73% 53% -5.8%
all 317 +3.2% -6.7% 74% 53% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 53% -5.7%
10% -15.6% 32% -14.7%
15% -23.7% 18% -22.9%
20% -31.2% 9% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses233 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)317 / 317
History coverage284d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 317 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1155 history records