Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe5a4…fd10 sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+3%) realized +$214 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%33W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$372
7 days+$372
14 days+$372
30 days+$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$227
other 1% −$55
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +43.1% +29.5% 100% 100% +32.1%
≤30d 4 +7.3% -2.9% 75% 75% +23.7%
≤90d 4 +7.3% -2.9% 75% 75% +23.7%
all 53 -12.5% -20.8% 62% 53% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 53% -6.5%
10% -28.4% 40% -15.4%
15% -35.3% 23% -23.6%
20% -41.7% 15% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$48 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$214
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses33 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage205d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 60¢ 40¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $346 +$223 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $198 +$67 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $265 +$81 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) Jan 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Passion UA (BO3) Jan 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $20 +$23 +117%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Oramond (BO3) Dec 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 07 $400 −$200 -50%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 07 $300 −$100 -33%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 07 $428 +$118 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 07 $150 +$70 +47%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 06 $50 +$31 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 06 $442 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Imperial (BO3) Dec 06 $222 +$26 +12%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Dec 06 $52 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 06 $198 +$59 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Dec 06 $401 +$3 +1%
Hornets vs. Raptors Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 05 $470 −$30 -6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 05 $202 +$86 +42%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Dec 05 $116 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 05 $50 +$25 +49%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 05 $160 +$33 +20%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO1) Dec 05 $50 +$15 +30%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 05 $93 +$56 +60%
Lakers vs. Raptors Dec 04 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Imperial (BO1) Dec 04 $5 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 04 $80 +$60 +75%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 04 $13 +$4 +33%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1) Dec 04 $50 +$17 +35%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Spirit (BO1) Dec 04 $40 +$22 +56%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) Dec 04 $43 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO1) Dec 04 $39 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Dec 04 $47 −$6 -13%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs 3DMAX (BO1) Dec 04 $42 +$8 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO1) Dec 04 $30 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 (BO1) Dec 04 $4 $0 +7%
Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers Dec 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 03 $15 +$3 +18%
Wizards vs. 76ers Dec 03 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Dec 02 $52 +$14 +27%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TYLOO (BO3) Dec 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 01 $49 +$4 +8%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Dec 01 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or below on November 29 Nov 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest (BO1) Nov 29 $15 +$7 +49%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO1) Nov 29 $15 +$9 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $569 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $346 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $265 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $198 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $56 21d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $24 157d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Passion UA (BO3) BUY Passion UA 59¢ $6 157d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY FURIA 75¢ $250 190d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) SELL Spirit 100¢ $43 191d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY Spirit 46¢ $20 191d
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Oramond (BO3) BUY ECSTATIC 81¢ $20 191d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY G2 58¢ $200 194d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $112 194d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $200 194d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) SELL FaZe 100¢ $290 194d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) BUY Passion UA 37¢ $100 195d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) BUY FaZe 69¢ $200 195d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $545 195d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $128 195d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $300 195d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) BUY TheMongolz 83¢ $100 195d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) SELL FaZe 100¢ $81 195d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $50 195d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) SELL MOUZ 100¢ $277 195d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY MOUZ 97¢ $141 195d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY MOUZ 76¢ $100 195d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) SELL Team Falcons 24¢ $36 195d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) BUY FaZe 62¢ $50 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.07 · official $52.23 (match) · 139 history records