Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5a5…6ca4 crypto 41 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-11%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$8
other 12% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 38% -10.5%
≤30d 41 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 37% -20.9%
≤90d 41 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 37% -20.9%
all 41 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 37% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 37% -20.9%
10% -25.3% 37% -28.4%
15% -32.5% 34% -35.3%
20% -39.1% 32% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$22 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$10 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$10 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$138 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$61 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$56 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$26 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $165 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records