Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5a6…8143 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$292 (+8%) realized +$285 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$746
crypto 23% −$78
tech 20% −$108
politics 9% −$230
culture 2% +$6
world 1% −$25
finance 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 38 -16.5% -24.4% 39% 21% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 21% -1.5%
10% -31.7% 13% -10.9%
15% -38.3% 11% -19.5%
20% -44.3% 8% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$56 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$285
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage233d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $43 $51 +$7 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 20 $46 −$18 -40%
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? Mar 20 $100 −$67 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 12 $147 −$126 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 12 $40 +$18 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 12 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 12 $196 +$19 +10%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 12 $101 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $28 −$25 -89%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Feb 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 16 $295 −$287 -97%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Feb 16 $189 +$1,301 +687%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on November 26? Nov 26 $208 −$208 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 26? Nov 26 $83 +$11 +13%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 26? Nov 26 $102 +$11 +11%
XRP Up or Down on November 26? Nov 26 $176 +$9 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? Nov 26 $114 +$62 +54%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 26 $87 +$6 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 26 $10 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Dell Technologies (DELL) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 26 $30 +$3 +9%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 25? Nov 25 $42 +$70 +167%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $172 +$14 +8%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 19 $226 −$203 -90%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025? Nov 17 $23 −$17 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Nov 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 13 $50 −$46 -92%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 13 $93 −$74 -79%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 12 $100 −$7 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Nov 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Nov 10 $217 −$25 -11%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1 Nov 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Nov 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 09 $362 +$51 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $14 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $14 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $32 96d
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? SELL Yes 9¢ $32 96d
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $127 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $20 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $21 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $20 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $37 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $20 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $9 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $10 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $30 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $20 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $116 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $98 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $99 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $98 104d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? SELL No 37¢ $98 104d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY No 38¢ $101 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $6 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 115d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No 0¢ $3 115d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 3¢ $28 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.57 · official $50.58 (match) · 94 history records