Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5ad…39c6 other 610 markets active 2h ago coverage 567d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 567d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$964 (-3%) realized −$949 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate36%215W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$71
14 days−$492
30 days−$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% +$25
other 21% −$80
sports 20% −$304
finance 10% −$132
politics 7% −$210
tech 6% −$151
crypto 6% −$135
weather 2% −$30
culture 0% −$8
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -5.7% -14.6% 17% 5% -13.0%
≤30d 172 -11.8% -20.2% 17% 3% -15.7%
≤90d 338 -8.6% -17.3% 26% 13% -13.6%
all 605 -8.3% -17.0% 36% 19% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 19% -12.5%
10% -25.0% 14% -20.9%
15% -32.2% 11% -28.5%
20% -38.9% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$949
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses215 / 390
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions5
Markets (closed)605 / 610
History coverage567d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 84¢ 84¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Yes 42¢ 8¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 19 $79 −$2 -3%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 19 $63 −$14 -22%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 19 $93 +$2 +2%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Netherlands vs S Jun 19 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Jun 19 $0 $0 -9%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA Jun 19 $37 −$10 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $40 −$8 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 19 $27 −$6 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? Jun 19 $7 $0 -8%
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FI Jun 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $48 +$12 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA W Jun 19 $3 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 21? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 19 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FI Jun 19 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FI Jun 19 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FI Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 19 $27 −$4 -16%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Jun 19 $19 −$3 -17%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Netherlands vs Swede Jun 19 $9 $0 -5%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I Jun 19 $32 −$8 -25%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIF Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 19 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 19 $25 −$2 -8%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast F Jun 19 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Germany vs Ivory Coas Jun 19 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Jun 19 $7 $0 -5%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 19 $2 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 81¢ $76 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 72¢ $25 1h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF SELL Yes 95¢ $95 1h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Netherlands vs S SELL Yes 19¢ $7 10h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA SELL Yes 17¢ $0 11h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA SELL No 20¢ $5 12h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA SELL No 20¢ $5 12h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA SELL Yes 97¢ $80 13h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 70¢ $24 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 55¢ $32 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 61¢ $19 14h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 74¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 62¢ $12 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 72¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 20? SELL No 64¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? SELL No 59¢ $6 15h
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FI SELL No 92¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 62¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 58¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 16h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA W SELL Yes 93¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 16h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIF SELL No 6¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 72¢ $17 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 21? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.50 · official $71.50 (match) · 3467 history records